Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Babies, immigrants help give Stanislaus a tiny census gain

By J.N. Sbranti
jnsbranti@modbee.com

last updated: December 23, 2008 07:51:15 AM

Thank goodness for babies. If it weren't for them, Stanislaus County would have lost population this year.

More people moved out of Stanislaus in 2008 than moved in. That hasn't happened since World War II.

Counting all the folks who came and left, Stanislaus lost 494 people, according to new estimates from California's Department of Finance.

Fortunately, the county recorded 5,225 more births than deaths during the 12 months ending July 1.

That enabled Stanislaus to eke out an increase of 4,731 people, nudging the county's population to 526,047. That's just 0.9 percent more than last year, the lowest percentage gain since annual estimates began in 1947.

That gain would have been much lower if so many immigrants hadn't moved here from abroad. The figures show that Stanislaus became home to 2,358 residents who relocated directly from foreign countries this year.

Those immigrants replaced many local residents who left the county, headed for greener pastures elsewhere in the United States. An estimated 2,852 more Stanislaus residents migrated out of the county than migrated in.

That loss in so-called domestic migrants was the highest on record, surpassing the 2,237 residents Stanislaus lost in 1996 during the height of the last big recession.

"You're very much a mirror of what's going on statewide," said Linda Gage, senior demographer for the state Department of Finance.

California as a whole had more people move out than move in from other parts of America. And like Stanislaus County, the state more than made up for that loss with new immigrants and more births than deaths.

Gage said that like Stanislaus, California saw a large domestic exodus, or out-migration. She said that's similar to what happened statewide during the mid-1990s, but that previous exodus was bigger because the last recession hit California harder than the rest of the nation.

The current economic downturn, Gage explained, is more widespread nationally, so "there's not a bright spot to move to." She said that's why more Californians are staying here, rather than migrating out as they did a decade ago.

California's population gained nearly 1.2 percent this year, pushing it above 38 million residents.

San Joaquin County also grew nearly 1.2 percent, reaching 687,044 residents.

Merced County grew more than 1.5 percent, reaching 256,114 residents.

Tuolumne County lost population for the second consecutive year, falling 0.2 percent to 56,470.

Stanislaus now has the 16th most residents in California, with about 1.4 percent of the state's residents living in the county. San Joaquin is ranked 15th, Merced is 26th and Tuolumne 43rd.

Of California's 58 counties, Alpine has the fewest residents, just 1,202. Los Angeles County has the most, 10.3 million.

Other counties with 1 million or more residents are: San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Santa Clara, Alameda, Sacramento and Contra Costa.

Combined, the nine most populous counties are home to 70 percent of California's population.

While most counties had more births than deaths, 11 had more deaths than births: Amador, Calaveras, Lake, Mariposa, Modoc, Nevada, Plumas, Sierra, Siskiyou, Trinity and Tuolumne.

The population estimates are used by government agencies for things like budgeting, needs assessment, program planning and evaluation, and the distribution of state funds.

The estimates are based on data from various sources, including birth and death counts, the number of driver's licenses and driver's license address change data, building permits, school enrollments, and federal income tax returns.

Bee staff writer J.N. Sbranti can be reached at jsbranti@modbee.com or 578-2196.

For more details on the California Department of Finance findings, go to modbee.com.

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